[Investment Research] Daily resumption and morning meeting essentials: the market is generally more obvious

This article was first published on the WeChat public account: investment strategy research. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk.

Today (September 29), the last trading day before the National Day ushered in a close, the 5G concept continued to shine, and the garden environmental protection sprang up. However, the profit-taking in the afternoon hot spot left a small upper shadow for the Shanghai Composite Index. Today, the GEM under the support of the garden environmental protection sector continues to be a bald Xiaoyang, and the trend is stronger than the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Morning meeting points

Macro: What is the liquidity in October after the RRR cut? - October 2017 liquidity outlook

Macro: Review of Asset Securitization Market in the Third Quarter - Asset Securitization Market Weekly (2017.10.09)

Home appliances: through the fog of the property cycle

Building materials: China Merchants Building Materials Weekly 10.1 - Pay attention to the cement price after the holiday exceeds the expected opportunity

Food and Beverage: Dairy Patterns and Yili Update In-depth Report (2) - Dairy Industry Cycle, Yili Leading

Petrochemical: Crude oil week view 20171007 - National Day holiday, a large general increase, why only oil fell?

Transportation: Weekly report of the “business” point of investment promotion – BDI continues to go up, Baiyun T2 exits duty-free landing

Tourism: Food and Tourism Industry Weekly - Jinjiang RevPAR increased its record high in August, and Sante cited foreign aid to accelerate the development of Wuyiyuan Scenic Spot

Pharmaceutical Biology: Continue to be optimistic about the valuation switch opportunities of pharmaceutical stocks

car:

Ningbo Huaxiang - signed a memorandum of cooperation to actively deploy new energy vehicles

car:

Huayu Automotive - Acquisition of the remaining equity of Shanghai Xiaoyu, integration to facilitate synergy

Communication:

Fiberhome Communications - non-public release landing, sailing and growing

Public utilities:

Fuchun Environmental Protection - non-public issuance of the meeting, continue to walk on the high-speed growth track

computer:

New World - Participating in the technology of the branch, expanding the business operation service ecology

food and drink:

Gujing tribute wine - cost optimization, more highlights in the coming year, once again raised the target price of 81 yuan

Daily restocking notes

Today (September 29), the last trading day before the National Day ushered in a close, the 5G concept continued to shine, and the garden environmental protection sprang up. However, the profit-taking in the afternoon hot spot left a small upper shadow for the Shanghai Composite Index. Today, the GEM under the support of the garden environmental protection sector continues to be a bald Xiaoyang, and the trend is stronger than the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

On the last trading day before the National Day, after experiencing the pre-adjusted market, there seems to be a festive red atmosphere. The financial blue chips led by brokerages took the lead in the early days and quickly boosted market sentiment. Food and beverages followed closely, and papermaking also performed well at around 10 points to a full-day high. Afterwards, the market oscillated briefly, but some sectors performed steadily, such as decorative gardens, electrical instruments, communication equipment, and 5G concepts. However, the strong period of the previous period began to fall slightly after 10 points, which hedged the gains of some sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index remained volatile until the close of the morning.

In the afternoon, although the Shanghai Stock Exchange continued to fluctuate, some sectors began to retreat at high levels, but some sectors also performed brilliantly, such as chips. However, overall, the market is in a shock callback between 13:00 and 14:00. However, at the end of the day, the market volume continued to pick up, and investors began to make a good start after the National Day. The overall market gradually shifted from a shock to a steady upward trend. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher, showing a small Yangxian line. The trend of the GEM is relatively strong, showing a bald Xiaoyang line and the possibility of breaking through the MA10.

Overall, 347 of the more than 350 sectors turned red, with 88 and 1 in the sector with a rise or fall of more than 1%, and the stocks were 42 to 5. Although the Shanghai Composite Index is in a shock, individual stocks are obviously more active, and the market is generally more obvious.

In principle, the low-volume operation of the broad-based index on the last trading day before the holiday was in line with expectations, but the individual stocks were stronger than the blue-chip performance, and the market showed a general increase. From the trend point of view, the rebound of the GEM in the past three trading days is more neat than the Shanghai Composite Index. In the short-term, it has been attacked to the short-term moving average MA10. If it can be returned after the holiday, it will be possible to return to 1900. The trend of the Shanghai Composite Index is relatively contradictory. Many attempts to cover the gap on September 22 are met with resistance gaps. It is not the imbalance of the periodic sector or the lack of assists from the financial blue chip. The short-term market maintains a pattern of strong individual strengths.

Morning Minutes

Macro research

[Macro * Commentary Report] Xie Yaxuan / Yan Ling / Zhang Yiping / Liu Yaxin / Zhou Yue / Lin Biao: What is the liquidity in October after the RRR cut? - October 2017 liquidity outlook

Core point of view:

1) Continue the directional RRR reduction policy starting from 2014, and expand the scope of the first-class bank. Secondly, the central bank's policy is more precise, from a wide range of small and micro enterprises to focusing on the real small micro, true Pratt, and guiding the flow of credit funds to small and micro enterprises that donate less than 5 million yuan to single households. We estimate that at the beginning of 2018, the two conditions will be combined to provide an additional release of RMB 4,300-5,550 million, which is slightly lower than the scale of a total reduction of about 7,000-75 billion yuan. The RRR cut does not mean a shift in monetary policy. The economic fundamentals are only slightly weaker and do not support monetary policy to be “relaxed”. The RRR cuts that will be implemented in early 2018 will not have a material impact on October liquidity, but a more-than-expected RRR cut will still improve market expectations.

2) Review the liquidity situation before and after the recent important meeting: The liquidity of the 18th National Congress and the “two sessions” in 2016 and 2017 continued the trend at that time, but the fluctuations generally stabilized. Even during the “two sessions” in March 2017, monetary policy was tight and tight, and market liquidity was loose during the meeting compared with before and after the convening.

3) We expect the probability of funds to remain stable in October. In the middle of the month, the amount of funds due in the open market was large, and the pressure on financial contributions was relatively high. However, factors such as M0 and foreign exchange accounted for less impact on liquidity, taking into account the subjective intention of the central bank to maintain stability during important meetings, and the supervision is difficult to upgrade. It is conducive to relatively stable liquidity.

[Macro * Commentary Report] Xie Yaxuan / Zhou Yue / Zhang Yiping / Yan Ling / Liu Yaxin / Lin Wei: Review of Asset Securitization Market in the Third Quarter - Asset Securitization Market Weekly (2017.10.09)

In the third quarter, a total of 32 credit asset-backed securities were issued. The total issuance scale was 133.403 billion yuan, an increase of 52.38% and 83.08% over the same period last year. The total amount of personal housing mortgage loans and consumer loans issued has increased significantly from the previous quarter. The sudden emergence of retail-type loan securitization has become a highlight of the asset securitization market this year.

2. The issuance of asset-backed securities products of the Exchange continued the rapid growth since the beginning of the year. According to WIND statistics, a total of 124 corporate asset securitization products were issued in the third quarter, with a scale of RMB 213.696 billion. Microfinance securitization products accounted for 45.25% of the total issuance, of which Chongqing Alibaba Microfinance Co., Ltd. initiated 16 singles totaling 48.74 billion, and Chongqing Ant Small and Small Loan Co., Ltd. initiated 15 singles totaling 44.1 billion. Due to the adjustment of the bond market since the end of last year and the strengthening of superimposed financial supervision, the issuance rate of corporate asset securitization remained at a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of configuration, the current spread of corporate asset securitization products and corporate bonds is more obvious, and the configuration value is prominent.

3. There were two issues of credit asset securitization products issued in the interbank market this week, which were initiated by CITIC Bank 601998, the benefit of 2017, the second phase of credit card installment asset-backed securities and China Construction Bank Corporation. Jianxin 2017 first phase of non-performing asset-backed securities.

4. This week, the Bank's inter-bank market has one issue of asset-backed notes, which was issued by Junxin Financial Leasing (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., which was issued by Junxin Leasing in 2017. The issue size was RMB 918 million.

5. According to the announcement of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, a total of five asset-backed securities were listed on the exchange this week, of which four were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and one was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The basic assets of the listed transfer products include accounts receivable, policy loans, lease rentals and trust beneficiary rights.

6. There will be five issues of asset securitization products issued in the interbank market next week, including Phase 2 Consumer Loan Asset Backed Securities, Phase 1 Personal Housing Mortgage Asset Backed Securities, Phase 1 Credit Card Loan Asset Backed Securities and Phase 1 Auto Loan Asset Support. Securities, the total issuance scale was 21.281 billion yuan.

7. From the disclosure of the fund industry association this week, a total of 20 asset support special plans were filed in the association this week. The underlying assets of the recorded products include microfinance, lease rent, infrastructure charges, real estate investment trust REITs, accounts receivable, trust beneficiary rights, margin financing and securities claims and corporate claims.

8. The status of 4 asset-backed securities projects of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was updated to “pass” this week. This week, the status of one asset-backed securities project in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was updated to “pass”.

Industry research

[Home Appliances* Review Report] Ji Min / Wu Hao / Yu Siyu: Home Appliances Re-recording Notes - Through the fog of the real estate cycle

Prosperity judgment: Real estate influence geometry? A rough paper estimate (based on the current sales volume of household appliances and the amount of households and the volume of commercial housing), if the sales of commercial housing is -10% next year, the domestic sales of subsequent home appliances will be roughly 6%. Considering second-hand housing, the new demand for smoke stove products accounted for nearly 70%) Ice-washing products -3~-3.5% (update demand is dominant, household ownership is stable at 0.95 units) Air conditioning <-3% (Every household ownership) It is still improving; at the same time, it is affected by the weather; the real estate impact of small household appliances is more difficult to assess (related to the number of new households in the city), and the domestic sales of black electricity have been generally centrally fluctuating in recent years. The above description is consistent with the general perception of the A-share market, but the historical trajectory is not simply a linear interpretation of the real estate cycle.

2007-2011: Golden years. The average compound growth rate of domestic sales of Baidian in the past four years was +17.4% refrigerator + 24.2% washing machine +14.2%. In addition to the favorable factor of low holding amount, it has a certain relationship with the implementation of the appliance policy. “Home appliances go to the countryside” (Ice-washing color TV at the end of 2007, new air-conditioning in early 2009... Policy exit in January 2013) + “trade-in "2009.5-2011.12+ "Energy saving and benefiting people" (09.5-2011.6 air conditioning, 2011.6-2013.6 all categories). In the past four years, there was a downturn in the real estate boom in 2008, but at the end of the year, only white air conditioners sold 7.2% of air conditioners. The hood has a neurotic performance. It grew rapidly in 2008, falling back to less than 10% in 2009-10, and close to -10% in 2011.

2012-2016: Real estate is not the only factor. In the past ten years, it has experienced three real estate boom adjustments, namely 2008, 2012 and 2014. In 2008, only white air conditioners sold domestically -7.2% (refrigerator + 5.3% washing machine +11.6%). In 2012, the domestic sales of white electricity were air conditioner-5.7% refrigerator-5.6% washing machine-4.3% (almost no so-called 6-9 months lag, the rhythm was synchronized with the real estate cycle; 2011 flood disaster, Q4 from the real estate down and "energy saving" "Foreign" and "trade-in" policy exit). In 2014-2016, the sales of refrigerators that were overdrawn by policy demand declined for three consecutive years. In 2014, the domestic washing machine sold -0.2%, and then resumed the uptrend. 2015.6-2016.6, air-conditioning domestic sales fell off the cliff (2014 real estate down + air conditioning destocking cycle, the monthly maximum decline of more than 40%), and then started a strong rebound in 2016. In particular, it is necessary to mention that in 2012 (after the “four trillion” exit, the Chinese economy will decline in the second half of 2011), not only the white electricity market is changing, but even the A-share market is considered to be the most counter-cyclical and partial consumption property. The industry also experienced a decline in sales; the share of domestic-funded enterprises in the kitchen and electric appliance industry has been boosted by Boss Electric 002508 in 12-16 years, and the business performance of the stock market listed for 6 years has already explained everything).

Risk warning: the real estate boom is lower than expected, and the competition pattern of home appliances is suddenly changing.

[Building Materials * Commentary Report] Zheng Xiaogang / Dai Yaxiong: China Merchants Building Materials Weekly 10.1 - Focus on post-holiday cement prices exceeding expectations

2017 Cement Industry Investment Outlook: The national average cement price is expected to reach a new high. In 2016, the profit of China's cement industry reached 51.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55% (2015: 33.3 billion in the whole industry). Through the trend of cement price in the first half of 2017, we raise the annual industry profit to 72.5 billion, and expect the annual profit to grow by more than 40% year-on-year (if the price performance in the third and fourth quarters is strong, it is expected to reach the 80 billion profit margin expected by the association) The whole industry is still worthy of attention. At present, our views on the cement industry are as follows: The national price of cement exceeds the expected price in the case of no increase in the amount of the cement. The main reasons are as follows: (1) After the self-discipline, limited production, environmental protection and high pressure have achieved the phased effect, the leading enterprises (China Building Materials) , Conch) Make money awareness, confidence is enough. (2) Shandong and Henan are still ahead of last year's production limit by 15 days, which will further stimulate the import of foreign (the most beneficial to East China) cement, which indirectly drives demand in other regions. (3) The implementation of environmental protection in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is more in place than last year. The beneficiaries are: Conch Cement 600585, stock bar, Huaxin Cement 600801, stock bar and so on.

Cement view this week: benefiting from low inventory and tight clinker supply, cement prices will continue to rise in the later period. This week, the national cement price continued to rise, up 1.1%. The prices are mainly in Beijing, Nanchang, Fuzhou, Changsha, Nanning and Chengdu, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton. At the end of September, due to the impact of rainfall, the demand for cement in some areas dropped temporarily, and the delivery of enterprises decreased by 10%-20%. Due to the low inventory and the tight supply of clinker resources, the company continued to push up prices, and the absolute price level has been Break through the second quarter high. Affected by National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, downstream demand will be phased down. Enterprises will stock up during this period, and cement and clinker stocks will be upgraded. Considering that the downstream demand will also recover after the holiday, the price will continue to rise in the later period. Mainly.

2017 glass industry investment outlook: As the real estate is not pessimistic, it is expected that the annual demand will increase by 4.6% year-on-year, the glass price is relatively stable, and the coal soda ash price of raw materials becomes a variable of glass profit. If the increase in the second half is higher, the glass industry profit will be lower than 2016. Year, vice versa. Stock prices are subject to a cyclical overall recovery, but glass elasticity is less than coal, steel, and cement. Overall neutral.

[Food & Beverage * Commentary Report] Yang Yongsheng / Dong Guangyang / Ouyang Yu: Dairy Industry Profile and Yili Update In-depth Report (2) - Dairy New Cycle, Yili Leading

We believe that Yili's valuation faces the triple door of “space, pattern and expansion”. The first in-depth report in early August responded to the market's doubts about space and revealed that the demand for dairy products in the third and fourth-tier markets is huge. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the competitive landscape and development stages. We believe that the current dairy industry enters the third round of new cycles, the normal temperature milk duopoly quickly harvests the market share, the industry melee period is coming to an end, and the industrial chain integration capability will be the core competitiveness of the dairy enterprises in the future. In this process, the market share of Yili is expected to increase at the fastest rate. The share harvest period has just started. The mid-term report is not accidental. It is more optimistic about the new development cycle in the next 3-5 years. Give a one-year target price of 35-40 yuan, corresponding to 25-30 times PE in 18 years, three-year market value target of 3000-600 billion, continue to buy at current prices. At the same time, Mengniu's benefit share has improved and its operations have improved. Its performance is flexible and its market value has potential.

The inflection point of the industry has already appeared, and the dairy industry has entered the third round of the new cycle - the brand 3.0 era, and the equester has fully gained market share. China's dairy industry has experienced two rounds of cycles in the past. The first round of the market focused on the market. The regional dairy company Yili Mengniu relied on the Lele bag to attack the national market and establish its status as a river. The second cycle began in 2008 with food safety incidents and industries. Resources overweight layout, and even robbing upstream raw milk resources, this cycle has reached the peak in the 13-year milk shortage. After 14 years of overcapacity, even if it is bought through a large promotion, it still cannot compete with the brand leader. The original milk enterprise gradually Withdrawal from the downstream market, and more financial problems, the industry has opened up the capacity and integration process; currently, the dairy industry has gradually entered the third round of the cycle - the brand 3.0 era, in the context of consumption upgrades and operational efficiency, the original The milk enterprises gradually withdrew, the regional dairy enterprises sought the differentiated operation of low-temperature products and yoghurt, and the brand names such as Wahaha and Want Want made room for market, and the ilimo cattle accelerated the market share.

Leading the harvest share, Yili is even more popular: in terms of product line comparison, Ilido points to flowering and the potential is even better. In the in-depth report of the "Unstoppable Business Cycle" published in 15 years, we compared the channel models of Yili and Mengniu, and believed that Yili has greater potential in the channel model. This article re-emphasizes the dairy industry from the perspective of product structure. It was found that the Yili product line broke out more and more, and it has stronger profitability in all aspects of normal temperature, milk powder and cold drinks. Especially the products such as Anmuxi, Jindian and Jinlinguan have contributed significantly, and the proportion has continued to increase, while Mengniuquan The product line is the mainstay of Telunsu. Its milk powder business and raw milk business acquired in recent years have not contributed to the performance, and its overall profitability in recent years is obviously inferior to Yili. We expect that in the third round of the new dairy industry, the market share of Yili will increase at the fastest rate, the profit share of Mengniu will increase and improve, and the improvement of low profitability will be even greater.

Industry three-year outlook: CR2 is expected to increase to 70%+, pricing power is stronger. Since the beginning of this year, the dairy market has been opened from the top down, and the consumption of the lower-tier cities is huge, supporting a strong recovery in demand. Yili is expected to perform much better than market expectations in three years. The reasons are: First, the share of Yili harvest industry continues to accelerate; Second, consumption upgrades, categories represented by pure milk and yogurt, accelerate the replacement of other soft drink categories; After entering the market share full-term harvest period, Yili will have a downside in the expense ratio, and the proportion of superimposed high-end products will continue to increase, and the profit margin is expected to be higher. Mengniu's new team is committed to sinking channels. However, due to the influence of the large dealer system in the past, the speed is slightly slower than Yili. It is expected that the market share will increase slightly in the future, but the promotion is also inevitable. We expect the industry CR2 to increase to 70% in the next five years, the Gemini pattern will become more obvious, and the leading pricing power will be stronger.

Investment suggestion: From the industry melee to lead the industry, the market share accelerates the attack of the dairy industry leader, the target price of 35-40 yuan a year, the three-year target market value of 3000-600 billion, continue to buy at the current price. After two cycles of market grabbing and resource allocation, the dairy industry has gradually bought a third round of new cycles. In the brand 3.0 era, the original milk companies have withdrawn, the regional dairy industry has avoided the normal temperature to seek product differentiation, and the leading yilimen cattle accelerated harvesting. market share. Among them, Yili channel construction has obvious first-mover advantage, and the internal product business has more blossoms, accelerating endogenous growth, and the competitive advantage is on the verge, and the market share is unstoppable. We forecast EPS of 1.07, 1.35, 1.65 yuan in 17-19 years, an increase of 15%, 26%, 23%, and a target price of 35-40 yuan per year, corresponding to 25-30 times PE in 18 years. It is expected to reach 100 billion in 2020. Yuan income, 12 billion yuan net profit, three-year target market value of 3000-600 billion, continue to buy at current prices.

Risk warning: demand falls, new product relay does not meet expectations

[Petrochemical * Commentary Report] Wang Qiang / Shi Liang / Wang Liang / Li Wei: The view of crude oil week 20171007 - National Day holiday, the general increase, why only oil fell?

The geopolitical influence has weakened, the fundamentals have not changed fundamentally, and the oil price has fallen sharply. Due to the unclear situation in the Kurdish autonomous region and the impact of long-term profit-taking factors, oil prices started to fall this week; the actual attitude of the Saudi King to Russia did not satisfy the market. On the other hand, OPEC oil production increased in September, US oil production hit another two-year high, Libya re-activated the largest oil field, and the US dollar strengthened; as of the end of the week, oil prices closed at US$55.68 per barrel, down 3.23%; WTI closed at US$49.25/ The barrel fell 4.68%, and the US oil fell below $50 to a three-week low; the oil-WTI spread continued to remain around $6/barrel.

The geopolitical influence of Iraqi Kurdish weakens. 16 years of autonomous region + Kirkuk province (the Kurdish armed forces seized from IS in 2014) total output of about 600,000 barrels / day, accounting for 15% of Iraq's total output, most of the crude oil is transported by pipeline to the Turkish port for export, through refining in the local The capacity for digestion is only about 100,000 barrels. On the 27th, 92% of the voters in the Kurdish Autonomous Region of Iraq were in favor of independence. Iraq and Turkey reacted fiercely; if they were independent, their economic lifeline was in danger of being cut off, so it is less likely to be completely independent. Geopolitical influence on oil prices weakens unless the situation is out of control involving Iran, Iraq and Turkey.

US crude oil production exceeded 9.56 million barrels per day. In the week of October 6, the number of US oil rigs dropped by 2 to 748, of which the number of rigs in the Permian Basin dropped slightly. At present, large companies in the Permian region can control the cost below 30 US dollars / barrel. We believe that the output of the Permian Basin has no ceiling in the past two years. The key is the speed of delivery. In the week of September 29, US crude oil production continued to rise to 9.561 million barrels per day; of which the local 48 states produced 9.064 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous month; Alaska production rose to 497,000 barrels per day, and there is room for growth. The view that the daily output of US crude oil will soon hit a new high will remain unchanged. At present, there is a view in the market that the price of oil in the distant month will be transferred from the premium to the water to guide the market to speed up the inventory. We believe that the WTI is still in the premium state in the distant month (6 months), and the WTI is maintained at US$50/barrel for the US page. Rock Oil Company offers a rare opportunity to hedge H 18 production in 18 years! How to evolve the near-term and far-month spreads in the future is worthy of attention.

The peak season effect of inventory decline has declined, and Q4 oil price performance has historically been weak. Judging from the performance of American oil in previous years, Q4 is generally weak. A US mileage is generally peaked in July, and the peak demand season usually ends after the US Labor Day in early September. The next peak demand will wait until the end of the year; the second US refinery generally enters the inspection period at Q4; three diesel And heating oil will generally rise significantly during the lower temperatures at the end of the year. At present, the average load of refineries in the United States is maintained at around 88%, which is basically the same as that of the same period of previous years. The maintenance has a downward trend in the future. Although the total inventory and crude oil inventories are still falling rapidly, the gasoline inventories continue to rise, and the hurricane impact has subsided. We believe that it is consistent with the characteristics of the peak season decline.

The Brent “China Oil Price” view since the second half of last year is maintained, with a focus on four main lines. The main reason for the fluctuation of oil prices in the next year is still the dynamic game between OPEC's production reduction and the growth rate of US shale oil production. The reduction in production is only the lower limit of the blockade. The oil price will still operate in the “middle oil price” range of “top and bottom”, which is not blindly optimistic and does not need to be excessively pessimistic. Based on this judgment, we should continue to pay attention to four main lines: one is propane dehydrogenation to propylene (PDH) high-energy, the recommended Donghua Energy 002221, the stock; the second is the medium-term recovery of polyester filament and the leading into the refining, recommend Tong Kunming shares 601233, stocks; Third, the medium and long-term optimistic about the advantages of the natural gas integrated industrial chain of Zhongtian energy; Fourth, optimistic about the United States shale oil core enterprises of the new energy.

Risk warning: shale oil production continues to exceed expectations; geopolitical risks.

[Transportation * Commentary Report] Chang Tao / Yuan Nail: Weekly report of the "business" point of investment - BDI continues to rise, Baiyun T2 exits duty-free landing

Changes in the transportation sector market (this week): This week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3,837 points, down 0.03%; the Shenwan Transportation Index closed at 2,903 points, down 0.8%, behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.8%. The secondary industry of Shenwan was up and down, with the largest increase being the logistics sector, up 0.54%; the biggest decline was the shipping sector, down 2.67%. The stocks rose 28 this week, not rising 3, down 72; the biggest increase was Changlian shares, up 20.08%; the biggest decline was Hua Pengfei 300350, shares, down 10.26%.

Review of shipping data (this week): (1) Ocean dry: BDI index closed at 1405 points, up 3.6% this week; BCI index closed at 2929 points, up 7.0% this week; BPI index closed at 1406 points, this week It rose 7.5%; the BSI index closed at 971 points, down 4.9% this week; the BHSI index closed at 610 points, down 1.0% this week. The CDFI index closed at 1062 points, down 8.8% this week. (2) Coastal dryness: CCBFI index closed at 1227.8 points, down 3.4% this week (3) Consolidation: CCFI closed at 803.25 points, down 1.1% this week; SCFI closed at 715.97 points, down 2.7% this week. (4) Ocean tanker: BDTI index closed at 776 points, unchanged this week; BCTI index closed at 615 points, down 7.8% this week. The CTFI index closed at 649.52 points, up 20.0% this week.

Transportation (August): In August, the country's commercial passenger traffic was 1.61 billion (-4.4%), of which the passenger traffic volume decreased by 8.0%, but the private car travel continued to grow rapidly. The number of passenger cars with 7 or fewer expressways increased by 13.0. %; waterway passenger traffic increased by 4.8%. The national cargo volume was 4.20 billion tons (+11.2%), of which road freight volume was +12. 2%; waterway freight volume was +4.7%.

Fixed assets investment (August): From January to August, the national highway construction completed an investment of 1309.7 billion yuan (+26.7%), completing 79.4% of the annual target of 1.65 trillion yuan, respectively, highways, ordinary national highways, and rural roads. The completed investment was 539.68 billion yuan, 473.9 billion yuan and 299 billion yuan, up 15.3%, 25.2% and 58.0% respectively. The newly renovated rural roads were 181,000 kilometers, and 90.3% of the annual target of 200,000 kilometers was completed.

Investment strategy: In the long-term cycle, the 7.6% order/capacity ratio of the dry-distribution is approaching the bottom of the previous round of bear market, and the big cycle bottoming situation is clear; the 17-year supply growth rate of 3.5% is slightly less than the demand growth rate of 3.8%, supporting the freight rate to rise; BDI continued to go up after a brief callback and continued to recommend COSCO Hai Te. Baishi Logistics' IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, despite its huge losses, still has a valuation of 30 billion yuan. Thanks to the advantages of IT systems and processes, the performance of Yunda shares may continue to exceed expectations and continue to be recommended. The recommended portfolio of individual stocks: Huamao Logistics 603128, stock bar, Longzhou stock 002682, stock bar, Spring Airlines, Baiyun Airport 600004, stock bar, COSCO Hai Te, Yunda shares, Jianfa shares

Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn

[Tourism * Commentary Report] Merlin: Food and Tourism Industry Weekly - Jinjiang RevPAR increased its record high in August, and San Te cited foreign aid to accelerate the development of Wuyiyuan Scenic Spot

The broad market fluctuated within a narrow range, led by the food and beverage and communications sectors, and the food and beverage sector rebounded slightly. The catering and tourism sector index rose 0.09% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index (down 0.03%). In terms of individual stocks, Baima's leading stocks with performance support were among the top gainers, while small-cap stocks with the previous gains were in the first round.

Jinjiang RevPAR has a record high growth rate, waiting for the release of Q3 results. On September 27th, Jinjiang Co., Ltd. 600754, the stock announced the August 2017 operating data, Jinjiang hotel occupancy rate / average house price / RevPAR increased by 2.7pct / 4.0% /7.3%, Platinum hotel occupancy rate / average house price / RevPAR Year-on-year growth of -0.6pct/14.0%/13.2%, Vienna hotel occupancy rate / average house price / RevPAR increased by 3.3pct / 1.1% / 4.7%, Louvre hotel occupancy rate / average house price / RevPAR increased 4.0pct / -1.8% /4.5%. In August, Jinjiang, Platinum, Vienna and Louvre RevPAR increased by 7.3%/13.2%/4.7%/4.5%, which was further expanded compared with July (+5.9%/10.0%/1.8%/1.7%). The economic brand Jinjiang Star and the seven-day recovery have increased, and the monthly growth rate has reached a new high in recent years; the mid-range brand Laifeng and the morphine RevPAR have both increased by more than 10%; the Vienna hotel overall occupancy rate has climbed to 95.4%, driving RevPAR to continue to grow. The French Louvre Hotel's operating indicators rebounded in August, benefiting from the French economic recovery and the recovery of the tourism industry. From January to August, the company opened 529 hotels in the net, and will complete the annual store opening plan (700) in advance. Jinjiang's operating data in August was brilliant, and RevPAR's growth reached a new high. On the one hand, it verified that the domestic hotel industry continued to rebound, and the three leading hotels continued to benefit. On the other hand, Jinjiang is welcoming the fundamental turning point, and the third quarter is expected. Continue to show high growth. We believe that Jinjiang is already at the starting point for the performance improvement and the stock price rise, and the future performance is worth looking forward to.

Three special cableway 002159, the stock bar introduced external investors to accelerate the development of Wuyiyuan scenic spot. Sante Cableway announced on the 29th that its subsidiary Wuhan Sante Mulanchuan Tourism Development Co., Ltd. plans to introduce an external investor Mingdao Yuhong (Beijing) Asset Management Co., Ltd. to increase the capital of Wuyishan Company (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mulanchuan Company) by RMB 57.3 million. Cooperation in the development of Wuyiyuan Scenic Spot Project. Mulanchuan Company gave up the capital increase priority subscription right. The registered capital of Wuyishan Company will increase from 19.1 million yuan to 76.4 million yuan. Among them, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Mulanchuan Company will invest 19.1 million yuan, accounting for 25% of the shares; Yuhong Capital will contribute 57.3 million yuan, accounting for 75% of the shares. The project development of Wuyiyuan Scenic Spot requires capital investment. However, the company currently needs to invest more projects and has greater financial pressure. It has not been used as a priority development project. This time, the introduction of external investors to increase the capital of Wuyishan Company is conducive to the promotion of Wuyiyuan Scenic Spot Project. Development; can reduce the long-term negative impact of loss-making subsidiaries on company profits. When the Wuyiyuan Scenic Spot is completed and operated and certain conditions are met, Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co., Ltd. has the right to repurchase the equity of Wuyishan Company in priority according to the market fair price at that time.

Risk factors: the decline in macroeconomic growth; systemic risks in the tourism industry.

[Pharmaceutical Bio* Review Report] Jiang Yifan/Wu Bin: Pharmaceutical Bio-industry Weekly Week 41, 2017 - Continue to be optimistic about valuation opportunities for pharmaceutical stocks

The main points:

Last week's sector data review: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11%, the small and medium-sized board rose 0.48%, and the ChiNext rose 0.03%. The pharmaceutical bio-sectors performed strongly, rising 0.85% last week, outperforming the small and medium-sized board and the ChiNext. Affected by Boji Medicine 300404, the medical service sector rose the most, at 1.83%; the biomedical sector and chemical products sector rose 1.48% and 1.31% respectively; the medical device segment was affected by Yingke Medical and Lexin Medical, down 0.32%. The biggest decline; other medical biological sub-sections have changed less.

In terms of individual stocks, the “super malaria” that caused the failure of mainstream therapy is spreading in Southeast Asia. The news stimulated the bio-vaccine stocks to strengthen. Wanfu Bio-300482, the non-public offering of stocks passed, rose 13.5%, the first increase, and Kangtai Biological rose 8.8%. As a professional CRO service provider, Boji Pharmaceuticals benefited from this news, the stock price rose 9.6%; in addition, the first three quarters of medical records opened 101%-107%, the stock price rose 12.3%; Guangshengtang 300436, stock bar GST-HG161 Breakthrough progress has been made in the development of new drugs for liver cancer, and the prospects are high, rising by 9.1%. In terms of decline, investors generally bearish on Hai Purui 002399, stocks assets restructuring, after the resumption of trading fell 15%, ranked first in the decline; Fu Jen Pharmaceuticals 600781, stocks stock price recently stagflation, fell below the 60-day support caused panic , fell 8.6%; the company's executives fell to 1.46 million shares, the stock fell 7.0%; in addition, Wei Xinkang, Taihe Health fell 9.2%, 8.4%, a large decline.

In terms of investment strategy, near the end of the year, it is already in the next year. We are optimistic about the companies with strong profitability and reasonable valuation this year and next. From the perspective of sub-industry, we are optimistic about retail pharmacies, OTC drugs, and prescription drugs for rigid demand. The targets we strongly recommend are: 1. Huadong Medicine 000963, stocks, the valuation is only 25 times, the compound growth rate is 25% in the next three years, PEG is the lowest in the section; 2, Yunnan Baiyao 000538, stocks, after the previous adjustment, valuation We have already lowered, we expect to have a higher probability of completion in the second half of the year, optimistic about the continued rapid growth in the future; 3, Taiji Group 600129, stocks, mixed change expectations + fixed base price to provide a margin of safety; 4, Tonghua Dongbao 600867, stocks, performance is stable 30% growth rate, valuation 38 times is still at historical lows; 5, ordinary people 603883, stocks, national layout chain expansion, although the short-term share price is suppressed, but the valuation is only 34 times; 6, one heart 002727, stock, province The external layout was further promoted, and the upward trend of performance growth was clear.

Risk warning: market volatility risk, individual stocks performance is not up to expectations

Company research

[Car * Review Report] Wang Liusheng / Peng Qi / inch Simin / Li Yiyang: Ningbo Huaxiang 002048, stock bar (002048) - signed a memorandum of cooperation, actively deploying new energy vehicles

event:

On September 28th, the company announced a memorandum of cooperation with GSR CAPITALAdvisors and Jinshajiang Capital to conduct in-depth cooperation based on the use of Nissan battery technology to expand production in China. The latter two intend to establish a joint venture company, GSR Electric, and the company plans to subscribe for no more than US$100 million. Share participation in the Nissan Power Battery M&A project (acquiring 30% of the joint venture company). We believe that the company is actively deploying new energy vehicle-related businesses while doing its current business, and is expected to enter the power battery field in the future in combination with its own technological advantages. Maintain "strongly recommended -A".

comment:

Signing a memorandum of cooperation, is expected to enter the field of power batteries

The company has two companies: GSR CAPITAL is a limited liability company established by the Jinshajiang Capital Team in Cayman. It has obtained the exclusive license of Nissan Battery Technology for China's expansion. Jinshajiang Capital is the Jinshajiang Capital Team established in Beijing, China. The limited liability company, mainly in conjunction with the Nissan Power Battery Project in China, led the negotiations with local governments and customers. The two intend to form a joint venture company, GSR CAPITAL holds 40%, Jinshajiang Capital holds 60%, Ningbo Huaxiang plans to increase capital by 100 million yuan, and acquires 30% of the joint venture company. According to previous media reports, GSR CAPITAL is close to a deal to acquire a controlling stake in Nissan's Rechargeable Battery Company (AES) for approximately US$1 billion. AES is committed to the development of high-performance, low-cost power batteries with a technical path of lithium manganate batteries. At present, the positive electrode material of the power battery is lithium manganate-lithium nickelate composite, the battery cell capacity is 32.5 Ah, and the soft pack battery has an energy density of 157 Wh/kg. At the same time, the company has battery modularization and group technology, which can develop battery pack system according to the vehicle space.

We believe that the company is actively deploying new energy vehicles while doing its current business, and actively explores "power battery connection lines", "cooling systems", "metal casings" and "insulated shockproof materials". A package of professional car battery pack solutions, if the cooperation project is launched, will provide the company with new growth points.

[Car * Review Report] Wang Liusheng / Peng Qi / inch Simin / Li Yiyang: Huayu Automobile 600741, stock bar (600741) - acquisition of Shanghai Xiaoyu remaining equity, integration is conducive to synergy

事件：9月28日，公告公告收购上海小幺车灯50%股权，公司原有上海小幺50%股权，本次拟出资17.2亿元收购日本小幺45%和丰田通商5%股权，交易预计在2018年上半年完成，完成后上海小幺成为公司全资子公司并且进入并表范围。我们认为，收购上海小幺剩余股权符合公司“零级化、中性化、国际化”发展战略，有利于发挥协同效应，提升汽车照明领域的核心竞争力，维持“强烈推荐-A”评级。

1、收购上海小幺剩余股权，整合利于发挥协同效应

公司拟出资17.2亿元收购日本小幺45%和丰田通商5%股权，交易预计在2018年上半年完成，完成后上海小幺成为公司全资子公司并且进入并表范围。上海小糸汽车照明业务拥有自主的技术开发体系、独立的市场客户体系和完善的运营管理体系，在国内汽车照明产品技术、业务规模、市场占有等方面一直保持领先地位，市占率20%左右。17 年1-7 月上海小糸未经审计合并报表口径，营收为70.32 亿元人民币，归属于母公司净利润为2.93 亿元人民币。我们认为，公司收购上海小幺剩余50%股权后，有利于公司推进汽车照明业务的整合，有利于发挥协同效应，持续优化成本结构，有效提升盈利能力，同时能主动把握未来汽车照明产品网联化、智能化发展趋势，加快技术创新，加快完善国内外生产经营布局，着力形成汽车智能照明业务核心竞争能力。

2、国内汽车内饰龙头，三季度业绩有望提升。

公司作为汽车零部件巨头，业务覆盖广泛，配套客户优质，龙头地位稳固。在上半年汽车行业增速下滑的前提下（汽车销量增速4.2%），公司营收增速（11.5%）依然高于行业平均（在核心配套上汽大众、一汽大众同比负增长前提下），二季度由于行业去库存压制零部件企业收入利润增长，三季度行业回补库存并积极备货四季度，理论上三季报业绩同比增速会拔高（上汽7-8月销量增速同比分别为6.09%、6.36%）。

风险提示：业务整合不及预期，上汽汽车销量不及预期，海外业务增速不及预期。

【通信*点评报告】王林/周炎：烽火通信600498 ,股吧（600498）：非公开发行落地，扬帆起航再成长

事件：

公司于26日晚发布《非公开发行股票发行情况书》，本次以26.51元/股价格共计发行6797.43万股，累计募集资金18.02亿，扣除发行费用后实际募集资金17.75亿。发行对象包括烽火集团在内共计7名。

1、大股东认购10%，发行价格高于底价23.19%，具有较高安全边际。

本次非公开发行对象包括北信瑞丰基金、九泰基金、嘉实基金,、信诚基金,、中信证券600030 ,股吧、财通基金六家机构投资者以及公司大股东烽火科技集团，其中烽火科技集团认购6797435股，占发行总股本的10%。本次非公开发行价格最终确定为26.51元/股，相对于21.52元/股发行底价溢价23.19%，反映市场看好公司未来成长，综合来看具有较高安全边际。

2、募集资金改善资产结构，奠定公司长远发展基础。

本次非公开募集资金净额为17.74亿元，带来公司中资产和净资产相应增加，资产负债率由69.55%下降至65.22%，财务风险下降显著，公司抗风险能力提升。此外，从本次非公开发行募资资金的投资项目包括融合型高速网络系统设备产品化（5.16亿）、特种光纤产业化（2.47亿）、海洋通信系统产业化（4.13亿）、云计算和大数据（2.56亿）以及营销网络体系提升，在夯实公司传统主营的同时，重点布局信息化业务，加速公司从光通信专家向ICT信息化专家的转型，奠定公司长远发展基础。

3、5G加速，传输先行，公司作为光通信龙头有望充分受益。

短期来看，近期中国电信、中国移动传输设备集采释放出传输网建设投资改善的信号，传输网建设在后半年有望加强并带来传输设备需求改善。中长期来看，当前5G发展呈现加速趋势，6月份Ovum上调5G发展预期；在27日举行的中国信息通信展上，中国联通600050 ,股吧副总经理姜正新透露联通计划明年在全国重点城市开展试验，2019年计划在全国开展试商用部署。从行业发展逻辑来看“5G发展，传输先行”，光通信是通信传输中的重要技术，公司作为国内光通信龙头企业将充分受益于5G发展早周期中对于光纤光缆和光通信设备的投资。

4、投资建议：维持强烈推荐A，目标价35元。

公司是5G核心标的，近年来的转型发展中，公司平台化布局效应显现，2017年随着信息化转型持续推进，光纤光缆产能释放，毛利率有望企稳回升，同时非公开发行落地打开公司发展空间。我们预计2017-2019年净利润分别为9.98亿、12.97亿和17.3亿，对应EPS分别为0.90元、1.16元和1.55元，对应当前股价PE分别为34.8X、26.8X和20.1X，维持12个月目标价35元（2018年30倍PE），维持“强烈推荐-A”。

风险提示:增发进度低于预期、运营商资本开支不达预期、政策变化风险、网络安全项目推进低于预期、泄密风险。

【公共事业*点评报告】朱纯阳/张晨：富春环保002479 ,股吧（002479）—非公开发行过会，继续走在高速增长轨道上

事件：

富春环保于9月28日晚发布关于非公开发行股票申请获得中国证监会发行审核委员会审核通过的公告。2017年9月28日，中国证监会发行审核委员会对公司2016 年非公开发行A股股票的申请进行了审核。根据会议审核结果，公司本次非公开发行A 股股票的申请获得审核通过。

1、募投项目包括外延并购、基地扩产和技术升级改造，增发过会对公司未来持续发展意义重大

2、富春环保2017年以来实现高速增长，主要来源于内生增长，主要子公司均体现较好成长性

3、受环保督查影响，公司三季度增速下滑，但影响期限较短，且长期增长确定性更强

4、盈利预测及投资建议

目前，富春各大基地对应的工业园区实际使用面积尚不足总面积的1/5，后续内生增长空间巨大，此为公司保持内生增长的必要条件之一；此外公司各大基地均已或正在实现烟气排放达到超净排放要求，且新港热电、东港热电、江苏热电、常安能源等基地均有扩建规划，此为公司保持内生增长的必要条件之二。

而在环保持续高压的趋势下，工业园区化已经成为趋势，随着园区外企业因环保不达标被限制发展以及强制搬迁，有利园区内已有企业负荷提升，甚至扩产，以及入园企业数量迅速增加，均有利于工业园区持续快速生长，且确定性更强，此为公司保持内生增长的充分条件。

此外，公司目前负债率低、在手现金充裕，此次非公开发行也将极大释放公司资金压力，有助于公司推进持续外延收购的战略，未来收购增厚业绩空间广阔。

我们预计公司17-18年归母净利润为4.0、5.9亿元，若按9月28日收盘价算，公司市值89亿元，对应PE估值分别为22和15倍，处于较低水平。公司短期看120亿目标市值，中期和长期看150亿和200亿目标市值，维持“强烈推荐-A”评级。

5、风险提示

新项目投产进度偏慢；新业务拓展进度低于预期。非公开发行最终未顺利发行的风险。大盘系统性风险。

【计算机*点评报告】刘泽晶/刘玉萍/宋兴未：新大陆（000997）—参股科脉技术，拓展商户运营服务生态

事件：公司公告以现金0.8亿元认购新三板挂牌公司科脉技术定向发行的800万股股份，认购后对科脉技术持股比例为15.73%。

参股零售、餐饮业领先管理软件开发商，商户运营强协同。我们一直称公司为“A股小蚂蚁金服”，因其致力于推动线下商户的互联互通及数据运营服务，而联合第三方合作伙伴将加速战略落地。公司此次参股的科脉技术深耕商户ERP软件领域18年，主要产品包括收银系统及餐饮软件。在全国有1000+销售与服务网点，30万+终端用户，每天有超过200多万台POS机运行着科脉软件，用户数量和市场占有率一直位居前列，客户包括世纪华联、全聚德、探鱼等。科迈16年收入5562万元，净利润508万元，预计未来几年收入增速至少保持在20%以上。科脉的商户管理软件服务与公司的智能POS平台运营等业务在客户拓展维护和业务融合方面均具有强的协同性，基于对商户IT服务行业未来发展前景的信心，此次参股将进一步丰富公司线下商户一站式服务的生态布局，为公司的数据变现业务继续夯实基础。

“星POS”上线运营，为商户提供SaaS型一站式经营服务。公司的线下商户服务平台“星POS”3月份正式上线以来，以智能POS和聚合支付为入口，联合第三方合作伙伴为商户提供SaaS型一站式经营服务。目前平台已拥有智能POS终端管理、ERP、应用商店、流量管理、收单管理系统等核心系统以及聚合外卖等增值服务应用，包括会员管理、营销引流、商业智能等在内的应用服务SaaS生态仍在继续完善。同时针对小微商户和C端个人的消费金融业务也在加速推动。公司经营性净现金流（OCF）稳健增长，当前静态P/OCF仅为21倍，而“支付收单-消费金融-商户运营”的成长逻辑将继续夯实现金流的增长，不断提升市值空间。

维持“强烈推荐-A”投资评级。考虑增发摊薄，预计17-19年EPS为0.72/0.79/1.12元，对应PE为31/28/20倍。支付收单高速增长，POS主业稳健，综合消费金融及商户运营变现大幕开启，维持“强烈推荐-A”评级。

风险提示：支付收单行业监管风险；商户运营发展低于预期。

【食品饮料*点评报告】杨勇胜/董广阳/李晓峥：古井贡酒000596 ,股吧（000596）—费用优化显力，来年亮点更足，再次上调目标价81元

基于公司逐步逼近百亿目标，进入费用回落的业绩收获期，我们8月份强力上调目标价至70元，近期股价表现抢眼。我们结合近期草根调研，以及公司今年以来的费用优化等策略，预计下半年将继续保持费用回落的节奏，三季度业绩仍有望保持较高增速，百亿目标红利逐渐显现，叠加公司来年省内加速升级、湖北河南市场的增速提升，估值可看更高，维持17-18年盈利预测2.14、2.71元，给予18年30倍PE，目标价81元，重申强烈推荐。

近期跟踪：古8一度断货，配额几近用完。近期渠道跟踪反馈，以宣酒为代表的几大品牌在合肥市场动销下降明显，区域品牌逐步退出合肥及周边市场，核心市场的集中度明显提升，在此背景下，合肥销售占比较高的古井受益最为明显。其次，古井高端产品增速加快，上半年古8增速超40%，二季度末公司对渠道适当稳价控货后，近期一度出现渠道断货情况，且增速超公司年初预期，年初配额几近用完，额度继续追加，省内消费升级趋势愈发明显。

百亿目标逐步逼近，费用优化释放业绩弹性。按照当前趋势，公司18年大概率实现90亿左右收入，含税收入将破百亿，提前实现公司百亿目标。在此背景下，公司年初开始对收入利润指标并重，增强费用有效投入，降低货补、陈列赠品等方式带来的窜货及低价，稳步提升终端价格。Q2报表效果逐步显现。我们预计公司在逼近百亿目标的背景下，费用优化将持续释放业绩弹性，预计三季度业绩仍有望维持较快增速。

18年三大看点：省内升级，省外提速，费用优化。公司虽然进入百亿冲刺期，但从中报数据看，上半年收入增速仍未显著加速，结合调研我们估计系省外河南等市场拖累所致，我们也了解到，公司在二季度调整河南市场分管领导及营销模式调整，改全面投入为聚焦突破，下半年调整蓄势来年。湖北黄鹤楼年内完成业绩承诺无虞，核心武汉及咸宁市场重现名酒市场活力，但整体仍处培育阶段，来年将会更好。叠加费用持续优化，收入冲击百亿，利润率步入回升期，公司18年可谓更多看点。

费用优化助力，来年亮点更足，再次上调目标价至81元，重申强烈推荐。我们近期跟踪显示，安徽省内品牌集中度加速提速，消费升级显著，龙头古井受益明显。百亿目标冲刺背景下，公司加强费用优化，逐步进入业绩收获期，预计三季度业绩仍有望保持较快增速。展望来年，公司省内尽享升级，省外增速提升，费用持续优化释放业绩弹性，可谓亮点十足，估值可看更高，维持17-18年盈利预测2.14、2.71元，目标价81元，给予18年30倍PE，重申强烈推荐。

风险提示：省内需求低于预期，省外拓展进度较慢。

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