The Brexit referendum opened A-share "buy OR sell" today?

According to the timetable announced by Bloomberg, the referendum on the Brexit will be officially opened at 2 pm on the 23rd of Beijing time and officially ended at 5 am on the 24th Beijing time. The results of the voting in the first region of the Isles of Scilly will be announced at 7:00 on the 24th. At 14 o'clock on June 24, after the results of the vote count were announced in the last constituency, the chief teller Jenny Watson will announce the final result.

After the British "League" party member Jo Cox was killed on the 16th, the poll results reversed. This week, the European Union’s support rate continued to rise, and the risk aversion continued to ease. The latest referendum results on Tuesday showed that the public’s sentiment was reversed. More than half of the respondents in the UK supported the UK’s retention of EU membership.

Some people think that the probability of this referendum will be a replica of the Greek referee vote last year. The thunder and rain will be small, and finally settled in peace. At that time, the risk appetite will further rise, and the transmission effect of risk aversion on the domestic bond market will also be Will end. Even if there is a black swan event in the end, the British people choose to leave the European Union. Since the UK still needs to negotiate with the EU for at least two years, the real impact will be limited in the short term.

“Compared with other countries, A-shares are still relatively closed markets.” Hong Kong, head of Bank of Communications International Research and chief strategist, told China Business News that there are many industrial and raw material companies in China. Will be affected by exchange rate fluctuations.

A shares are not afraid of Brexit is the key

Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, an uncertainty factor affecting the market will be eliminated by then.

"The impact of the referendum on China's capital market is also very large, but it is relatively indirect and long-term. The fluctuation of the international market and the rise and fall of A-shares are often linked, and more importantly, affect psychological expectations." A senior analyst of a brokerage in Beijing People told this newspaper that the two macro factors had a greater impact on the market before the end of June. One was the open market operation of the central bank, the market funds changed, and the other was the referendum.

An insurance person told the "First Financial Daily" reporter that compared with safe-haven assets, the success of Brexit will cause a decline in risky assets, but only a one-time impact. "Europe is China's largest trading partner. The UK is the financial center of Europe and provides financing for global trade. The success of Brexit may hit Europe's trade. The trade between China and Europe may also shrink, but the volume should not be too large. The above-mentioned insurance professionals believe that if the Brexit is the market to buy.

China Chuang Securities also released a research report saying that in the long run, the positive impact of Brexit on the Chinese economy is greater than the negative impact (import substitution effect), so the impact on risk appetite will also be pulsed, the sentiment of the domestic bond market The disturbance will also be pulsed. Therefore, the referendum on the withdrawal of the European Union is difficult to promote the trend of domestic debt markets.

“A shares are still relatively closed compared to other countries. In fact, the direct impact is on the exchange rate market, mainly including the pound, the euro, the US dollar and the yen,” said Hong Wei, head of the Bank of International Research and chief strategist. According to the "First Financial Daily", there are many industrial and raw material companies in China that will be affected by exchange rate fluctuations.

The chief investment officer of Skybound Capital believes that Brexit will not have much direct impact on the domestic capital market. The actual market impact is only to amplify the emotional reaction of investors, the real fundamentals and The economic impact will not turn upside down overnight.

In his view, some of the A-share and H-share listed companies have a lot of business directly in the European region, and such companies may be affected by the actual situation, but the number of such companies is not large. "The only remaining influence is back to the mood. If the retreat is successful, the global market will return to the risk-avoiding state in a short period of time, then the negative impact on the H-shares will be greater, and the A-shares may suffer some small waves." The H-shares will include a number of favorable factors including Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which may be far greater than the impact of Brexit.

Commodity market optimism

The answer is not revealed, the prediction is not limited, and the outcome of this century's big vote is still unclear. Hong Wei told the newspaper that there is still a probability of 25% to 35% off the EU, so it is still a high probability event.

After the British "League" party member Jo Cox was killed on the 16th, the poll results reversed. According to a survey conducted by British polling agency Survation last weekend, 45% of respondents supported the UK staying in the EU, ahead of the support of Brexit (42%), and before Joe Cox was killed, the poll results showed Support for the number of people leaving the country.

This week, the European Union’s support rate continued to rise, and the risk aversion continued to ease. The latest referendum results on Tuesday showed that the public’s sentiment was reversed. More than half of the respondents in the UK supported the UK’s retention of EU membership.

“The market is more relaxed about the performance of the referendum, so the price does not fully reflect the incident.” Hong Yi analysis believes that if the Brexit is successful, the pound will fall in the dollar, and the volatility will be transmitted after the first reaction of the exchange rate market, followed by the bulk. Commodities, and finally to the stock market.

The referendum is just around the corner, and major European stock markets have risen in recent days. The market sentiment was worried about Brexit in the early stage and gradually turned to the recovery of confidence in staying in Europe. On the other hand, the overall negative interest rate policy in Europe has produced a multiplier spillover effect, which is now reflected in the market inflation level.

As of the close of European time on the 22nd, the British FTSE 100 index (FTSE100) experienced 4 consecutive yang, closing at 6261.19 points, up 4.9% from the opening price of last Thursday. Germany's DAX index experienced a slight decline of 13.58 points yesterday after going through 5 consecutive years, reported at 10071.06 points. Since the opening of last Thursday, the weekly increase has exceeded 6.2%. The French CAC40 index also fell 9.37 points on Wednesday, after 4 consecutive days, at 4380.03 points, up 6.4% on the 5th.

“The positive impact of the low-interest monetary policy has already played a structural role in the economic recovery in Europe. The rise in inflation in the future will have a positive impact on large-scale assets, especially the stock market and commodities.” China (Hong Kong) Financial Derivatives Wang Hongying, Dean of Investment Researcher, told the reporter of China Business News.

"In terms of investment, the UK's stay in the EU's stable recovery of the global economy is relatively beneficial and will have a positive impact on economic stability and even recovery." Wang Hongying told reporters that the global economy is recovering in an orderly and moderate manner. The crisis will lead to financial risks will be a small probability event, the economic environment and the monetary factors affecting commodities have undergone fundamental changes. The risk of a safe-haven currency such as gold is relatively large in the short-term, and the overall commodity market is more optimistic.

Wang Hongying believes that the UK may rationally choose to stay in Europe in the short term. At present, although the bargaining of the UK and the EU continues, from the perspective of the relationship between countries and the optimal allocation of resources, the choice of the majority of referendums should be rational.

European cautious layout

British assets have been favored by domestic capital in recent years. Li Ka-shing has bought hundreds of millions of dollars from China to buy and buy in Europe in three years, and foreign media has called it "Chinese who buy more than half of Britain."

With the intensive export of Chinese enterprise groups in recent years, Europe has become an important part of the overseas layout of domestic enterprises.

Fosun Group not only acquired the Portuguese insurance group, but also bought the Brocade Building, a landmark business office in Milan, and entered the French resort hotel group Club Med. It is also the major shareholder of the German textile giant Tom Tailor. In 2015, Anbang Insurance completed a 100% stake in the Belgian insurance company Fidea, the Belgian bank and the Dutch VIVAT insurance company.

Fosun and Ampang’s positions in Europe are far more than just properties. The former has European financial institutions with consumer goods companies and the latter with financial institutions.

"If the premise is that the retreat is unsuccessful, then there is no real impact in the short-term. In the medium and long term, the EU needs huge reforms. The specific impact depends on the final implementation." Shou said to reporters. It also said that the Chinese-funded presence in Europe has diversified corporate business areas and the risk of distributed dispersion. From a global perspective, even if there are some problems in Europe, it can be considered as a prior price.

Hong Wei believes that European assets are not the main assets and economic sources of these companies, so the radiation they receive is limited. For companies such as Anbang Insurance's financial business in the UK, if you leave the EU, you need to re-evaluate the response according to the EU's access conditions. The two-year negotiation period may not be enough.

The aforementioned insurance analysts analyzed that the pound itself is not in the euro zone. The UK and other European countries are trade alliances and not currency unions. They do not have a substantial impact on the international monetary system. Unlike the Nordic countries that hold large amounts of national debt in southern European countries, the “separate family” will Relatively painful.

In the opinion of the industry insiders interviewed, Brexit has limited influence on the status of London's financial center.

Hong Wei told reporters that the City of London has been striving to become the offshore center of the renminbi and to support China in the internationalization of the renminbi. However, regardless of whether it is retreat or not, the status of London's financial center will not be replaced in the short term. In his view, it is not known whether Brexit has an impact on the internationalization of the RMB. The international exchange of RMB is not limited to the UK, and the offshore RMB is currently only in the range of 1 trillion to 2 trillion, so it will not be particularly Impact.

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