阑夕: Reverberation | Weibo paid question and answer content open third series

This article was first published on the WeChat public account: Yu Xi. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly, at their own risk.

Invited to open a "paid question and answer" on Sina Weibo, the daily average of 100+ questions is too enthusiastic. This time, some of the selected content was publicly posted on WeChat, and I hope that the gift will have a fragrance.

According to the rules of Sina Weibo, these questions and answers will automatically become free browsing after three months of submission, so sharing them in WeChat in advance, the right is a negligible welfare.

Q:

What is the relationship with the young people? Is it necessary for office workers to entertain for the so-called contacts? Is Chinese-style entertainment necessary?

A:

People have a role in a particular environment, but they have never been obtained through entertainment.

In the traditional Chinese concept, it is full of fascination with "the noble", such as Ping An 601318. The chairman of the stock bar, Ma Mingzhe, used to spread the vastness of the rivers and lakes for the success of the driver as the driver. The mapping is just people. Looking forward to the release of the pie in the sky.

The mediocrity always hopes to copy the road and feel that the achievement of the cause is like a tug-of-war competition. Instead of being strong and sturdy, he hopes to join the good team.

Just a two-way trading in the market economy, you can never surpass your own level, directly enter the front of the big devil from the door of the novice village, and save the complicated but necessary intermediate links.

Many Internet finance-type products, such as Ali's Alipay or Tencent's Wealth Management, are building a risk control model—that is, judging how much a person can borrow, which means how high his repayment ability is. The important reference standard is his social relationship. Under the large sample of statistics, a person's economic conditions will be infinitely close to the average of his friends.

For example, if you have 100 friends, regardless of the rich and poor status of each of them, the average value is averaged, which is almost the level of your wealth.

The reason why such a product design idea is because it also reflects from the side that a person's so-called contacts will not make a short-term transition, you are the median of the people around you, and when you improve yourself, you will naturally Gain higher levels and be absorbed and accepted by new groups, giving them the opportunity to access different resources and perspectives.

So you should notice the order, the identity of the person who eats with you has changed, not because you actively squeezed into someone else's table, but you become stronger now, and then there is a meal voucher.

Of course, as a member of the social phobia, I personally recognize the value of the network, but it is difficult to accept the choice of business contacts, probably lacking respect for the sense of ritual.

Trying to be a free person is the warmest heart.

Q:

I am a warehouse manager. I am 26 years old. I have often heard that artificial intelligence will make many people unemployed in the future, especially in the fields of finance, logistics, production lines, customer service and so on. Do you think we exaggerate the impact of artificial intelligence? When artificial intelligence comes, what industries do you think will grow against the trend? What preparations should I make to avoid losing my job in the future?

A:

Seventeen years ago, Goldman Sachs hired 600 traders in the stock cash trading department in New York. This year, only two of the 600 people have saved their jobs, and the rest of the work has been replaced by electronic machines.

Note that in this case, it is far from being called "artificial intelligence" to steal the position of trader, but based on the combined effect of Moore's Law, small computer and software system. Even so, the annual salary is an average of 300,000 US dollars. The above-mentioned securities traders are also like the wormwood that is weak and windy.

At present, the general view in the industry is that artificial intelligence will deconstruct the operation mode of a large number of industries at a non-linear speed, especially in the occupation of "highly replaceable" (focus).

What is "strongly replaceable"?

Taking translation as an example, through the breakthrough and application of neural network technology (NMT), Internet giants such as Google, Microsoft, Baidu and so on have made considerable progress in the field of translation, just like "I can can a can with a can" Sentences, the results of using machine translation are terrible, but the well-tuned neural network can recognize different words of verbs, verbs, nouns, etc. of the same word, and automatically adjust the word order to strongly improve the correct rate.

As far as I know, Netease's cross-border e-commerce platform, Koala Haibu, used to outsource the translation team to “Chineseize” the original webpage when translocating overseas products, and to translate the product introduction, parameter functions, precautions, etc. For Chinese, this is a small expense and also supports some small teams. But starting this year, this work will be handed over to Netease's well-known artificial intelligence translation system. Netease only needs to hire or outsource the previous 1/10 translation experts for editing and proofreading, which means 9/ The 10 people have permanently lost this order.

But what we can hardly imagine is that in the short term, we will buy the works of Haruki Murakami translated by artificial intelligence. Because of the great difference between literary translation and text translation, we often joked that Haruki Murakami has both Lin Shaohua and Shi Xiaoyu. The version of the novel is about the translator's own literary attainments and the influence on the works.

These two requirements and service scenarios are some of the evidence about "alternativeness."

Unfortunately, because of the inflation of labor costs, the professional line of the Cuiguan is the hardest hit area to be solved by the enterprises. The spoilers and defenders of the retail industries such as Amazon, JD.com and Suning are all unmanned. In the next five to ten years, Amazon has placed a total of 15,000 Kiva sorting robots in its US-based warehouses, which has increased productivity by more than 3.5 times, which also means packaging, sorting and handling. A further wave of labor involved in various aspects such as shipping was replaced.

Your advantage lies in your youth. At the age of 26, you are still in a stage of strong learning ability and easy to accept new things. You should be prepared to invest in new knowledge as soon as possible, and to find advanced when you can balance your life security. Direction, whether this direction is based on an existing skill tree or a new skill tree, you must define a concept: recognize the "irreplaceable" position, and then try to evolve yourself until you match the requirements of the position.

Q:

I always feel that more and more paid questions and answers and paid readings make people feel that they have to pay for reading garbage. In fact, many classic and classical works in the Kindle store do not need money. The knowledge economy is so impetuous that even if you only know a little, you can't wait to cash out. What do you think? I didn't say you, you are great.

A:

Just as drugs can be divided into soft drugs and hard drugs, knowledge also has a soft and hard part to some extent. The gradual process from soft to hard is a path of increasing pain, so it is actually difficult to overcome. The high psychological and time cost, and the payment behavior is just one of the trading rituals.

I used to give an example in the article, which is still valid now:

If a young person of a suitable age is offered an MIT admission, I am afraid that not many people will refuse. However, MOOC courses from MIT are available free of charge across the entire network, but the absolute value of participating users and the low completion rate after participation - according to a report in the Atlantic 600558, the stock market monthly report, Even the MOOCs of prestigious universities such as Stanford University and the University of California at Berkeley have an average of about 80% of users choosing to quit halfway – all of which are weak in the development of an industry that is equally committed to knowledge and equality.

It is best for ordinary people not to try to assess and measure the ingredients of so-called knowledge. This will only be a dead end of an infinite loop. Confucius said that he has collected 3,000 disciples, and finally only 72 people have achieved success. Is it the other two thousand? For more than a hundred people, what they have learned is not knowledge?

The best responsibility for consumption is a subjective recognition. You take tons of gold to visit an original island that still uses shells as currency, and no goods can be bought. Every year, people have hundreds of thousands of dollars to get a lunch with Buffett. Is this meal really worth it?

The birth of the Internet, along with free logic to destroy the dramatic changes in payment logic, many things that have become ridiculous have become incredible, and countless new industrial opportunities have been built on the old corpses. For a long time, strong value judgments cannot change the cold facts. Judging, until one day, based on the prosperity of the digital economy, the maturity of payment technology, and the advent of the commercial market, people realize that when they want to get something, he needs to spend money, and he can accept the money. This choice, in my opinion, is the greatest achievement of the payment trend.

Sean Parker: "I used Napster to play the record company. This is the same."

Eduardo Saverin: "Sorry, you didn't have a whole record company, they won."

Sean Parker: "In the court."

Eduardo Saverin: "Yes."

Sean Parker: "So, do you still want to buy a record now, Eduardo?"

This is a story in the movie "Social Network". According to real events, Eduardo Saverin is the co-founder of Facebook, and Sean Parker is one of Facebook's early investors. They talk about the latter's famous entrepreneurship. Project Napster, a music sharing software that allows users to download MP3 files stored on any other user's computer for free and free via Napster without paying any royalties.

Napster, who was so popular, was eventually brought to court by the record company and was sentenced to lose, leading to a sale. Sean Parker thinks that although he lost the lawsuit, he won the hearts of the people, because Napster dominated and promoted the popularity of P2P technology, people began to chase this software model to break the price mechanism, and the evil record companies will eventually be because of their greed. And step into the end.

Twenty years later, Sean Parker’s rhetoric is only half right. Not many people continue to buy the record, but the record companies have not lost. They have been in trouble because of the conservative and stubborn copyright. There is no new round of opportunities for Internet application iterations. The digital music service platform Spotify already has 50 million paying users. Apple Music has nearly 25 million paying users, even in China, where piracy is most rampant, QQ music has 15 million. Above paid users.

So, not that I am great, but this era is getting great.

Q:

Big, now a rumor on Weibo is that "sending microblogging is more useful than alarming." From the previous old lady of the street stall to the case of Lijiang in Yunnan to the case of Shandong today, it seems that the same is true. "Protect yourself with legal weapons" seems to be a joke. How do you think about this phenomenon? How can we protect ourselves in this environment?

A:

The survivor's prejudice means that people only pay attention to the results after being screened, and ignore the cruel screening process.

Take my Weibo account as an example. It is probably because of some so-called influence. On average, I receive more than 30 help information every week. It is not that the house was injured by the demolished family, or that it was involved in many cases and suffered many misfortunes. Weibo, almost all of them are brushed, and they have all the big V they can think of, but there are very few responses.

This is not to make moral judgments, but to state the fact that attention economy is bound to consume huge costs, but not everyone has the ability to pay for this cost. For example, Lijiang’s event has “lucky cost”. It can stand out in the hundreds of millions of streams of information every day, which is undoubtedly an opportunity at the lottery level.

The system is absent, so the myth is filled, the imagination replaces the facts, the sand is all down, and the luck is running away.

There is never perfect legislation in the world. Just like the generation of bugs can promote the iteration of software programs. If isolated events cannot bring the whole system to update, then its sacrifice has no meaning.

More than a decade ago, the death of young Sun Zhigang could change the country. Time passed, things were human, and the power of the media not only continued to be weak, but even its righteousness was eroded and incomplete. This is the biggest reason for the tragedy.

Gansler Loyce is regarded as one of the important figures in changing American law. This woman gave up her job more than 50 years ago because she could not bear the harassment of her male colleague. However, she was unable to get unemployed because she was "actively resigning". Relief, she spent fifteen years with the team of lawyers, the lawsuit from the local court to the circuit court, the object of the lawsuit from a single employer to federal legislation, and ultimately promote sexual harassment into a crime, and received a huge amount Compensation.

The biography of Loyce defines the value of the gains brought to society by the "cost of creating a precedent": sexual harassment is not completely banned by conviction, but like Lois That kind of encounter—squeezed by the company, misunderstood by the public, and even some people smothering and sluting at the door of her home—is difficult to reappear. Commercial companies have established anti-sexual harassment systems to protect those who ask questions. Female employees, litigation is no longer a high-risk option.

"From a personal point of view, this may not be worthwhile; but from a social point of view, it is actually a very effective way to promote social change. The common law is based on precedents, and the group litigation concerning civil rights is Conducted in a peaceful manner and planned in advance, so it is based on the past rather than completely abandoning the past and linking the future to the past in a continuous and gradual way, with change and politics. The behavior is very different. The cost of group litigation can be very large, but compared with other forms of social change—boycott, violence, war, etc.—the cost is negligible. Therefore, in comparison, group litigation It is an extremely effective way of social change."

Q:

Hello there! Wang Xiaobo’s status in the domestic literary world was like that of God. Some people even said that there is no Chinese contemporary literature without Wang Xiaobo. But others saw Wang Xiaobo as flat, saying that he was only known as the SB. I read less, and I am so big. What do you think?

A:

Newton thinks that Blenitz is a "shameful, thief."

Leonardo da Vinci's Michelangelo is engaged in "a dirty and unconventional rough career."

Liu Wendian did not go to Shen Congwen, saying that Professor Chen Yudang took four hundred dollars. "You should only take four dollars from Shen Wen."

Nietzsche commented that Dante was "a coyote who wrote poems on the tomb."

Borges said that Shakespeare is not the one who best reflects the English style. "He always exaggerates his words."

Evelyn Woer argues that Proust was caught in "a certain sad mental defect" when he wrote "Reminiscences."

Liang Shiqiu criticized Lu Xun for not having "the chest and preparations that writers should have". It is not worthy of a photo with Shaw.

Ladd said that Lawrence said that the latter "has nothing left except dirty."

Chandler commented on Hemingway: "He just turned over and read a sentence until everyone thought he was very arrogant."

Qian Zhongshu changed his words to Yu Pingbo: "Poetics is very shallow", "smuggling books", "death under the sentence", "nothing."

Wilde satirizes all celebrities with his contemporaries.

What I want to say is that evaluating others is not related to how much you study. Different people—both wretched and famous masters—have their own judging indexes, and creating objective standards for literature is undoubtedly the most stupid. Try it.

Only after reading Wang Xiaobo can you really know, so in your own right, he and his works are worthy of geometry.

Many people want to take shortcuts. I hope that some people can chew the world's rumors and vomit them out to tell them which ones are delicious and which are not worthwhile. But they don't know that this kind of expectation has neither the ability to realize nor the trial and error itself. It is also an extremely important program.

Yes, time is precious, efficiency is paramount, but don't overestimate yourself. Your time is not so valuable. The risk cost of even reading a few books can't be afforded.

Q:

Recently, a batch of "shared charging" companies have been financing, will this industry break out in a short time? In your opinion, what business models will come out?

A:

Talk about this investment logic, just in time to participate in IDG's industry trend sharing meeting, some gains.

Compared with last year, IDG Capital’s forecasting metric has changed from “consumption upgrade” to “consumption downgrade” – which is of course a rhetoric victory – which means that after the market’s rapid cooking, users’ consumption levels change rapidly. Evolution, from their evaluation of the value of goods to the downgrade of fashion goods to the fall of consumer goods, the transformation window of commercial structure is still open.

This also means that companies that are able to make their own blood (cash flow) begin to demonstrate their ability to resist risks, especially when entering this less optimistic cycle, their viability is better than those that are free to trade. Digital products.

Therefore, in the hunting map of IDG, some products that are not so "internetized" are also rapidly increasing due to a certain commonality: the ability to obtain the payment of C-side users online.

E-sports Internet cafes, shared charging treasures, clothing rental, property services, social board games, milk tea shops... In the past theory, these areas are no longer in the category of "TMT investment", but with online traffic The beginning of stereotypes and offline penetration, their scarcity value began to be captured by the savvy capital.

In other words, the incremental market does not have to be an "additional" in the absolute sense, it can also be produced through the process of elimination and replacement.

This is also the fundamental reason why "new retail" is gradually replacing the bubble-like "O2O". Competition can be done both through subversion and in integration. The crucial factor is whether entrepreneurs and their behind-the-scenes capital can See how far.

As in the original Taobao, it is impossible to solve the problem of poor information without any reorganization of the supply and demand structure.

Therefore, in the future, the business model worthy of capital chasing, in addition to the new concepts of ABC (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing), must be based on how it breaks up the market for incremental manufacturing.

This is also the reason why the value of talents in the supply chain is soaring. This is in line with the product manager Luoyang Paper in previous years: there are too many jobs and they need to do it.

IDG talked about an example of a lightweight, high-speed expansion of a gym like a convenience store (two years to the national store):

In essence, this business and mini KTV, online English training, have the same market opportunity: to provide low-decision consumption solutions for the pan-middle class.

Han Wei’s survey before the establishment of the music campaign showed that it is difficult to support the spending power of thousands of dollars in the annual card with the total household consumption in China in the model of international practice.

Therefore, although China's gym industry is prosperous, it is difficult to make a profit under the expensive charging system. So far, it has not been successfully listed, nor has it developed cross-border chain. "So it is absolutely not normal."

And I am happy to break the gym into a retail mode, refuse to sell the annual card and only sell the monthly card, 99 yuan a month, through cost control and data operation, drive a large number of non-target customers to accept the "work on the way to take the time to get some fitness" The low decision-making process uses high heads and streams to drive up profits.

Because this project is in full compliance with IDG Capital's judgment on the development trend of the industry, from the A round to the B round, IDG capital is the leading investor. In the words of the building army, "its principle is to be fashionable and popular but the price is not Philippine's products have become a daily and cost-effective lifestyle that captures the opportunities for users to change their minds."

Q:

If you are asked to write a book with Young People, share the most valuable experiences and lessons learned during your life, and the most valuable cognitive experience, especially in terms of wealth accumulation and personal value improvement. I don’t know if you will write some what? (ps: I rarely see you sharing this content)

A:

Before the age of 30, the effort is more important than the choice. After the age of 30, the choice is more important than the effort. At the same time, do not understand the phrase of the dogma. The potential meaning of it is not to prematurely pursue short-term interests, but ignore the existence. There is not enough room for growth, and don’t take the gains and losses as the goal of lifelong struggle, so that it will come out too late to overlook life.

2, to be a fun person's value, to be far higher than to be a powerful person, not to share this interest, is an effective driving force that allows you to coexist with ignorance and calmness.

3. Keep up. It means always being dissatisfied with the present, knowing the softness inside the armor, and being able to make a step-by-step schedule. Pride is an obstacle to destroying this belief, and we must learn to avoid it as much as possible.

4, the herd and the follow-up do have a role, suitable for quickly finding the direction of the mass test, but this is only the most rigid means to escape the danger zone. The cost of independence is high, but it is also indispensable, and the rational opinion, no matter in which aspect - career, love, social - is a valuable quality. Learn to control and manage your personality, rather than letting others shape it.

5, money is a vulgar, is also the equivalent of cashing talent, not shy to mention money, but also not only money. Money is important, so love it, don't hate it or misinterpret it. If you can increase your value at a non-linear rate, then you can also get your own money at the same rate as the usual economic laws. Make yourself the least substitute person, and then the market will give you an estimate of the price that will satisfy you.

6. Many people live to be forty years old when they are twenty. Although there are many objective reasons to justify this situation, it is not a decent picture. Young means rich possibilities, we must make full use of the age stage of zero-cost and low-cost trial and error, boldly plant some of the head, and spend time on good things.

7. Lifelong learning is not a planned business concept. It reflects how free people should ensure competitiveness in an era of increasingly fierce social changes. The iteration of careers and even the speed of death will be faster and faster. The experience inherited from the elders is no longer applicable. Everything depends on the body and mind to measure the answers, so don’t think about any form of iron rice bowl. Remember, stability is Crisis, landing is a crash, staying is a retreat.

8, learn to understand - attention, is understanding, not identification - everything does not meet their own cognitive picture, and how to cut off the impact of emotional. To get along with this bad world for a long time, you must have a heart that is easy to move forward, and you are only responsible for yourself. You must restrain the inappropriate illusions about others. Be a free person.

9. Embrace wisdom. In other words, it is against the anti-intellect, even if it looks fashionable and happy. You smoke, you tattoo, you squat, you drink, then you are not a good girl, of course you have the right to do so, but do not take advantage of cheap and sell, trying to fiction a definition of self-deception.

10. Play with me more.

Q:

How do you see Tesla's prospects in China? The same is true for the cheap model 3, and the high model is ridiculously expensive. China’s high taxes and government subsidies for 0 are a serious obstacle to Tesla. Why does China's encouragement policy for Tesla fail to implement China? After joining the WTO for many years, Tesla with zero emissions still has a 25% tariff. Is it reasonable? Secondly, there is also a local auto industry. How do Korean auto companies fight new tariff vehicles with zero tariffs?

A:

First, we need to define a basic definition of economics: to provide specific subsidies to the free market in the role of the government. Even at the most optimistic point of view, at best, it can be used as a temporary policy, just like the medical application of morphine to the wounded, if not If it breaks off in time and causes an addiction reaction, then its effect will soon fall from relief to damage:

The only result of undermining fair competition is that bad money drives good money, excellent risk innovators are killed or expelled, and poor rent-seeking arbitragers survive and eventually lower the supply quality and demand enthusiasm of the entire consumer market.

This principle is equally applicable in the United States. Tesla relies on the Obama administration's subsidized heritage and has many disadvantages for this company. As a policy-oriented revenge, the Trump administration has turned to traditional car companies and traditions. Energy provides a lot of shelter, and the fight between the two business ecosystems will continue.

China's design of tariffs has always been a topic of criticism. This is not the exclusive treatment of Tesla. All imported cars will be more expensive than the price of free-traded markets. Premium, impressing customers who are willing to pay more for overseas standards. However, the concept of "parallel imported cars" has revived in recent years, but it basically cannot afford a considerable volume and will not be discussed here.

The foothold of the trade protection policy is that it does not directly oppose competition – and certainly does not deny the basic principles of competition – but it assumes that a “open market will completely destroy the weak self-service market”. The panic scene, thus getting some legal rationality.

In those industries where China's self-identification is weak—culture (film), industry (car-making), finance (banking), etc. – it is quite common to set up obstacles for foreign-invested companies. Of course, for many years, this protection Whether there is any effect or not, there is still a lot of controversy. For the film industry, some people believe that the box office outbreak of domestic movies is a favorable product of protection. Some people think that it is difficult for China’s film works. Fully competitive "blessing."

Tesla’s siege in the Chinese market may still be like its predecessors, convincing consumers to pay through unique global standards and absolute leading brand values, if you can see how the current middle and above families are When you buy a can of foreign milk powder and try your best, you probably won’t be too pessimistic about how Tesla can overcome this unfair treatment.

As for the practice of Korean car companies, the practice of any free market in the world is the same, based on technological innovation, positive competition, people gambling and losing. Of course, countries such as South Korea, Japan, and the United States will set a certain degree of barriers. This must be acknowledged. It is only that the world's crows are not generally black. You also need to understand.